Cassandra was the beautiful daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy. She was given the power of prophecy by the god Apollo, but when she refused to sleep with him he punished her with the curse of never being believed. Cassandra foresaw the destruction of Troy and warned the Trojans. Her predictions were ignored.
Though “predictions of cataclysm are endemic to China watching,” as the former New York Times Beijing Bureau chief, Patrick E. Tyler, observed, specialists in the past attempting such prognostications as: James R. Gorrie in China Crisis, Peter Novarro in The Coming China Wars, and Gordon G. Chang in The Coming Collapse of China have either been dismissed as doom-and-gloom peddlers or China bashers – often unfairly.
But following China’s July 3rd stock market crash and Beijing’s heavy-handed intervention, “doom and gloom” concerns about China are now being expressed openly by an increasing number of economists and financial experts around the world worried that the Chinese government’s manipulation of the stock market in the first place and its subsequent heavy handed intervention to restore order have created longer-term issues. A Reuters report from Hong Kong filled in additional cause for concern. “Beijing may have averted a crisis in its stock markets with heavy-handed intervention, but the world’s biggest corporate debt pile — $16.1 trillion and rising — is a much greater threat to its slowing economy … which is set to fall to a 25-year low this year.” Another report mentioned that China’s debt was now twice the size of its GDP.
But official Chinese sources confidently claimed that China’s growth number had soared to 7%, following the government’s “timely intervention” in the Stock Market collapse. This figure was pointed out in comment # 13 on my previous post, by Dorjee (a Chinese troll?) : “China is growing at a 7% clip. This is hardly the sign of a collapsing economy … Also, China has something like 4 trillion in foreign currency reserves, so the country has the financial muscle to prop up the markets and burn short sellers… China will never give up Tibet, for obvious reasons”
But reader # 18 (Purerangzen) responded to Dorjee with a link to a Business Insider report which explained how China’s growth numbers were faked. A subsequent report on this web-journal provided further clarification “China recently announced its quarterly GDP number — 7%, right on target. Like it always is. This time, though, no one on Wall Street believed the number was real. The country’s economy is slowing, and its nearby trading partners are already feeling the strain. This time, the chorus of investors responding with disbelief was louder than ever.”
Then on Monday, July 27th, the Chinese stock-market nose-dived again by a staggering 8.5% – its biggest drop in eight years. Bloomberg News observed “Confusion Reigns in China’s Stock Market”. A BBC headline declared “Shares slide as panic grips China’s stock market”, and commented “This is the stuff of nightmares for a government which likes to be in control.” Finally after a three day slide and after “massive government intervention” the fall was halted on Wednesday. A stock-trader counting his losses was reported by BBC as saying “The lesson is never trust the government.”
I am well aware that a Stock Market crash or two do not a Rangzen Spring make. In order to get a better grasp of the underlying realities of China’s economic problems I spent quite a few days reading up everything on the subject I could lay my hands on. I ended up frustrated and no wiser from where I had started.
Finally, a researcher friend of mine suggested I read this interview in Barron’s Magazine with Anne Stevenson-Yang, one of the most informed and incisive of China analysts, particularly on financial and economic matters. Though the interview was from December of last year, Stevenson Yang’s answers seemed uncannily prescient about events of this July.
I also came across this very dry, very technical but strangely compelling Youtube video of Stevenson-Yang speaking at the prestigious Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, where she went into a detailed point-by-point analysis (with lots of graphs and what not) of what she thought was wrong with China’s economy. It was interesting to see how the other China experts in the panel treated her with kid gloves, and how very politely but effectively she shot down their tentative assertions that things might not be so bad in the PRC. Some of the points she makes:
1. “People are crazy if they believe any (PRC) government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated.”
2. “The country is now submerged by a tsunami of bad debt … the country has reached its limit to issue debt.”
3. (On the Real Estate Bubble bursting). “It is already under way, though in seeming slow motion.”
4. “A big one (indicator of economic trouble) is increasing capital flight from China on the part of wealthy Chinese and corporations using phony trade invoicing and other ploys.” (According to Global Financial Integrity China leads the world in illicit capital flows. GFI estimates that over $1 trillion of illicit money left China between 2003 and 2012. Capital flight has escalated dramatically following the 18th National Congress (Nov 2012) and the launch of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. JN)
5. “This is basically the range of the debate now, whether it (China’s economy) goes out with a bang or a whimper.”
6. (On Xi Jinping’s anticorruption campaign) “What’s really going on is an old-style party purge reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s with quota-driven arrests, summary trials, mysterious disappearances, and suicides, which has already entrapped, by our calculations, 100,000 party operatives and others. The intent is not moral purification by the Xi administration but instead the elimination of political enemies and other claimants to the economy’s spoils.”
Tibetans and friends should watch this video. It is somewhat data intense and the “bullspeak” will give you a headache, but if you stick it out till the end you will be enlightened.
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TIBET AND RANGZEN SPRING
I want to use Stevenson-Yang’s conclusions on Xi’s anti-corruption campaign to segue to the issue of Tibetan freedom.
There is a general consensus in China study circles that an economic downturn or collapse could lead to social unrest and possibly even political disorder in the PRC. Among Chinese dissidents and Tibetan freedom activists this scenario plays out a bit further where the Communist Party is overthrown (or collapses) and China become a democracy, and Tibet and East Turkestan become independent states.
I have never been able to quite convince myself of the immediate likelihood of such an outcome. Large scale social unrest has been ongoing in China for many years now. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported in 2012 that “mass incidents” regularly exceeded 100,000 per year. But the security services have always been able to effectively contain all demonstrations and uprisings when not crushing them outright. Not only is the reach and power of China’s security services overwhelming, but since 2000 China’s defense budget has been exceeded by spending on domestic security, highlighting Beijing’s concern about internal threats.
But if the Communist Party itself (and its organs of repression) were to weaken or become divided – in addition to economic collapse and social unrest – then, of course, all bets are off!
In the “Newspeak” of Chinese political expression, where “Democratic Reform” means the imposition of totalitarian rule and where “Cultural Revolution” means the wholesale destruction of culture, President Xi’s anti-corruption campaign might be interpreted to mean the monopolizing of corruption for the benefit of his family and Party faction, and the destruction of his opponents. Is Xi’s campaign tearing apart the fabric of the Communist Party in much the way that the Cultural Revolution did in 1966? Of course, it is not immediately apparent right now, but we should bear in mind that no one in the West realized that the Cultural Revolution was actually a quasi civil war, till it was nearly over.
Stevenson Yang points out that expectations have risen tremendously with this generation of Party cadres, requiring ever increasing resources to satisfy them and maintain their loyalties. Will the expected downturn in China’s economy lead to more reckless “resource capturing” by various factions in the party leadership, turning the current turf war into a quasi civil war as happened during the Cultural Revolution?
Such an eventuality, with the army and the security services divided, would allow space and opportunity for social unrest in China to develop into mass uprisings, and for pro-independence uprisings in Tibet and East Turkestan to evolve into revolutions. So, without getting drawn into further conjecture or prognostications, we could at least agree that it is more than timely that Tibetans begin a national discussion on the future of the Tibetan struggle. Everything, even the most awkward, politically incorrect or taboo question regarding this issue should be thrashed out openly. A few suggested topics:
1. Will the CTA stick to its Middle Way policy and oppose any struggle for independence?
2. What can be done in such a contingency. Is there hope for independent leadership or a coalition of nationalist groups to take up the challenge?
3. Will Tibetans inside Tibet take the lead? Is exile leadership irrelevant?
2. If Tibetans in Tibet start local uprising and those remaining Chinese troops and security forces in Tibet crack down on them violently – as happened in 1911, what could exiles do to help them?
3. Should exiles continue with the present declared policy of non-violence, or more correctly, non-action?
4. Is a military solution possible?
Please contribute your thoughts and criticisms to the debate. Suggestions on how to raise this in other forums and services are welcome. Yes, Tibet’s political winter has been a cruel and a long one – a permanent condition according to some – yet the sign are here that Rangzen Spring is coming.
Great piece that gives a feast for thought.
I would suggest , as soon as any sign of a revolution by any fraction within the Maotherland is known to us , we should occupy and ransack all official chinese embassies and consulates in the free world and show that we stand for freedom for all.
To expect, or even worse hope, that the innocent souls rise up against this brutal regime without us making a real contribution to the chaos that is a necessity for structured regimes to collapse would be disgraceful.
We will have to find the courage and determination within ourselves that we expect of them.
No matter what the cost !
its interesting article, there is many speculation and expectation by people on what will economic crisis lead China to
any way, my opinion for issue raised here
1. Will the CTA stick to its Middle Way policy and oppose any struggle for independence?
YES 100%, if current system hasn’t been changed
2. What can be done in such a contingency. Is there hope for independent leadership or a coalition of nationalist groups to take up the challenge?
CTA is harshly crackdown against any thing out of their line…I couldn’t see how could this happen
3. Will Tibetans inside Tibet take the lead? Is exile leadership irrelevant?
I think Tibetan inside Tibet will do better job if they have opurtunity, since they are not under the influence of CTA Rule..unlike the exile, who is, which lead to its failure
2. If Tibetans in Tibet start local uprising and those remaining Chinese troops and security forces in Tibet crack down on them violently – as happened in 1911, what could exiles do to help them?
exile under HHDL AND CTA will do nothing, just like in 2008
3. Should exiles continue with the present declared policy of non-violence, or more correctly, non-action?
YES OF COURSE! it must be changed! the so called non-violence will do nothing, its in fact, breed more Chinese violence… as for reality, Chinese think Tibetans are loser by climing this way, they only understand power, nothing else, its for sure Much more action must be taken by Tibetan, in order for China to take it seriously
4. Is a military solution possible?
I think armed struggle is the only solution, this is the only thing that makes China look to the issue seriously. However, I couldn’t see how this thing will happen in the current situation of Tibetan, CTA will do everything to stop this thing from happening, the ironic thing is, they will be more interested to stop it if its happen, then working for tibet issue
Hi Jamyang,
Two points:
First, some time ago I heard / read an interesting take on the CCP and authority / power: the succession from Mao to Deng to Zhang Zemin to Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping –
(and holy crap: we forget that it is such a short list from Mao…)
– that as succession has occurred, more and more power has been sought / grabbed / delegated / struggled for.
It’s a successional fracturing, slow and usually without a major political earthquake-scale event to show the new power alignments. We don’t see it, but those in the CCP’s top ranks do.
To what degree are Xi’s efforts an attempt to re-assert consolidated authority in order to stave off further fracturing?
Second:
In reading the earlier passages of your essay on China’s interventions in its stock market (and not just its economy), I was struck by an intriguing possibility:
Lots of people LOVE China and the CCP as CEO and board of directors of China’s economy as a corporation model: top-down authoritative leadership is more efficient than messy and inefficient democratic capitalism and all that nasty governance and regulations.
But: with today’s currency devaluation, how many participants in the stock market, worldwide, and in China’s economy are now cursing the very unilateral interventionist approach to devaluing all that value that my investments had accrued (even the less over-heated parts, like solar components, for ex.).
Which is to say: to what degree will a participatory capitalism’s stakeholders / SHAREholders – not only inside China but especially outside of China – force the CCP towards more transparency and more access to redress: a back door approach to more rule of law?
And more so: will a decidedly self-interested CCP and its self-interested struggling factions be able to hold together an economically self-interested PRC when more and more stakeholders as SHAREholders flee a decidedly untrustworthy stock market, economy, and companies?
An intriguing back door into self-determination…
John
Jamyang la has always been thoughtful and it is really inspiring to be a dedicated freedom lover – taking up the responsibilities through educating myself and taking up the courage.
The downturn of Chinese economy strength in recent time brought out debates and nerved Chinese government – popularly more propagated way they said that it is a new normal. The economic might is the sole legitimacy of Chinese government as of now and failure to sustain its economy will shake whole China.
Chinese favorable playboys such as the Henry Paulson, the former United State Secretary of Treasury will have to shut up believing that China is going to be adapting and adopting to be the most sophisticated military regime and David Shambaugh’s prediction has already underway – The game of China – cracking down.
Tibetans should be able to understand who are we – mighty sons of great kings and we should live up to dreams.
When Middle Path Way finds no room to serve the generations long longings and sadness of Tibetan people, there will surely be different course of resistance. Putting my case as new generation and been living in exile for long time – I will have no hesitation if I will have to go with guns!
A movie that will answer some of the questions raised in this article.
Bose: the Forgotten Hero by the critically acclaimed Indian film maker, Shyam Benegal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh2EbuP_Y-4
Maura’s Eye Browsing Take on CTA’s Sikyong and Jang Ari Doncho – a sad but must read for innocent Tibetan people – and the rejoinders.
Follow me:
Tibet & China at the same Washington lobbyist
By Maura Moynihan – – Friday, July 10, 2015
Americans are reeling from the alarming disclosure of a massive theft of US government data, linked to Chinese government cyber warriors. China is hardly contrite; plans to honor President Xi Jingping at a White House State dinner this fall will proceed as planned, emboldening China to rattle sabers in the South China Sea and ramp up attacks on the Dalai Lama, who celebrated his 80th birthday on July 6th in Los Angeles. But many US officials in national security and Congress are demanding a re-examination of US–China policy, which should include taking a hard look at how China may be spreading its influence over the Tibet movement.
Many American supporters of the Tibetan people’s freedom struggle are concerned about abrupt changes made by the Office of Tibet, which is registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) as the official representative of the Tibetan Government in Exile. The Office of Tibet and the Tibet Fund shared a building in Man-hattan from the 1980’s, but in 2014, Mr. Lobsang Sangay, the newly elected Tibetan exile leader, uprooted the Office of Tibet from New York and moved it to Washington. Sangay also replaced the acting head of the Office of Tibet and installed his right-hand man, Kaydor Aukatsang, whose chief qualification is absolute loyalty to Sangay. Sangay and his team wanted to sell the New York building, which had appreciated over the years to over $4 million, but met with resistance from the board of the non-profit Tibet Fund.
Sangay also found sufficient financial resources to sideline ICT and hire Sconset Strategies, a Washington lobbying firm whose biggest client is Benjamin Wey, the Chinese born multi-millionaire, recently embroiled in a sexual harassment lawsuit in New York City- a Federal Court ordered him to pay $18 million in damages – which provided salacious fodder for inter-national tabloids with lurid tales of Wey’s sexual aggression and his proclivity for sending racist-pornographic images in emails. This is not Wey’s first brush with the law: prior to his reputation as the “Horndog of Wall Street” Wey promoted himself as an expert in American-Chinese relations, with a specialty: “how to best invest in China-based American-listed companies.” Wey’s firm, New York Global Group, was investigated in 2012 by the FBI, for its shady practice of purchasing defunct American shell companies to create “backdoor listings” for Chinese companies, who gain a foothold in the US markets and siphon billions of investors dollars (and strengthen the Chinese economy) in the process. In 2005 Mr. Wey agreed to be censured for misleading investors in Oklahoma and failing to disclose information on his firm.
When Sangay hired Sconset Strategies in 2011, some questioned that small lobbying firm’s ability to honestly and effectively represent the interests of the Tibetan people, when its top client of long standing is Benjamin Wey, an avowed Chinese nationalist who aggressively pushes the financial interests of the Chinese Communist Party. Sconset Strategies‘ website lists its few other clients, which include Aristeia Capital, a hedge fund owned by the husband of one of Lobsang Sangay’s top supporters.
The Office of Tibet’s logo appeared next to Wey’s NY Global Group on Sconset’s website until 2014, when the firm’s relationship with the Office of Tibet was apparently terminated, around the same time the Office of Tibet shifted to Washington DC. Lobsang Sangay has never disclosed any of this information, leading many to ask why has there been so little transparency on lobbying, and why would the Tibetan Government in Exile hire a small lobbying firm that also promotes Chinese interests? Is overlooking this conflict of interest mere incompetence, or signs of something worse?
While studying at Harvard Law School, Sangay made a very public alliance with Ms. Hu Xiaojiang, whom intelligence sources identify as a Chinese Ministry of State Security co-optee. Ms. Hu helped arrange Sangay’s 2005 trip to Beijing and Shanghai. Indian intelligence officials have expressed concerns over Sangay’s “overseas national” while continuing to hold a Tibetan refugee identity card issued by the Indian government. Sangay denied that he made his 2005 trip on Chinese papers until he was confronted with irrefutable evidence in 2011.
Sangay also refuses to explain how, just four years after buying a house near Boston, he managed to pay off a $227,000 mortgage on July 29, 2011; he became the Tibetan exile Prime Minister just one week later. His mortgage documents are here, laying out all the facts except the continuing mystery of where the money came from: http://www.scribd.com/doc/110372514/lobsangsangay-mortgages
The Office of Tibet’s FARA statements reveal that they aren’t doing much lobbying, despite having an expensive new property in the nation’s capitol. According to FARA filings from October 2013 to March 2015, the Office of Tibet reported $900,000 in income, mostly through donations by Tibetan groups around the U.S. and Canada. The office spent $550,000, including $75,000 spent on travel, and more than $30,000 on “Chinese outreach” and entertainment expenses.
Meanwhile, Lobsang Sangay is working the lecture circuit, and turning heads with his pro-Beijing statements. In a May 2013 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Sangay stated that the Tibetan movement had abandoned democracy as a goal, accepted Chinese Communist rule in Tibet, and acceded to China’s full “discretion” in militarizing the Tibetan plateau. Sangay’s disturbing use of Chinese Communist propaganda code-words to describe Tibet can be found in his published papers, in which he refers to pre-1959 Tibet as a “feudal realm” that was “shackled to feudalism,” with “monks and grandees” displaying “reactionary” attitudes.
The Office of Tibet now has a $1.7 million office around the corner from ICT’s $2.7 million townhouse near Dupont Circle, which begs the question: how is a penniless refugee community of 150,000 people scattered across India and Nepal served by all this fancy real estate in Washington? Who is the legitimate representative of the Tibetan people? The next time Lobsang Sangay heads to Capitol Hill, let’s hope someone pulls up his bio and asks this ambitious Tibetan politician what drives his rejection of democracy and embrace of Communist Chinese rule, how he explains being in bed with Benjamin Wey, and who paid for his mortgage and his spanking new Washington office.
Maura Moynihan, daughter of the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, has been a longtime supporter and activist for the Tibet cause.
Office of Tibet response to “Tibet & China at the Same Washington Lobbyist”
August 3, 2015
Letters to the Editor
Washington Times
3600 New York Ave NE
Washington, DC 20002
Re: Tibet & China at the Same Washington Lobbyist (Maura Moynihan. July 10, 2015)
We were dismayed to see The Washington Times providing Maura Moynihan a platform to perpetuate the false allegations that she has been leveling against the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) and the Tibetan leadership since the 2011 Tibetan elections on various social media sites.
The writer’s allegation and your paper’s sensational headline are inaccurate. The role of Sconset Strategies was limited to facilitating a couple of meetings on Capitol Hill in July 2011 and this service was provided pro-bono. Beyond this fleeting interaction, neither the Office of Tibet nor anyone in the CTA leadership have since had any further dealings with anyone at Sconset Strategies. We disagree with the lobbying firm’s decision to list us a “client” on their website.
Discussion on relocating the Office of Tibet to Washington, DC has come up under past Tibetan leadership over the last few decades, and it was under the current 14th Kashag (Executive Cabinet of CTA) that a plan for relocation and its smooth execution became possible in April 2014. The related issue of source of funding for the purchase of the office building in Washington, DC has already been addressed by the Kashag at the session of Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile and by the Office of Tibet at various community meetings in North America.
The writer while attacking the Tibetan leadership for working with a particular lobbyist also complains that the Office of Tibet isn’t doing enough lobbying. Maura Moynihan, despite some association with the Tibet issue, reveals a fundamental lack of understanding of how we do outreach work on Tibet in Washington, DC. We cannot and will not attempt to compete with China’s multimillion-dollar lobbying effort in Washington by hiring the services of top K-Street lobbyists. The appeal of Tibet and the support we receive has always been for four primary reasons: truth is on our side, underdogs can win, our non-violent approach which has won the goodwill of many, and we have His Holiness the Great 14th Dalai Lama as our leader. Our struggle has never been and will never be determined by how much money we can spend on lobbying.
Since the relocation of the Office of Tibet; we have been able to enhance the profile of the Central Tibetan Administration in Washington, DC; sustain the support in Congress through various bills, resolutions and hearings; and double the United States government funding to Tibetan refugee communities in India and Nepal. These efforts have been appreciated and acknowledged by most Tibetans.
The Tibetan leadership is committed to resolving the Tibet issue through its Middle Way Approach (MWA) policy. For those who attack the current Tibetan leadership of “embracing Chinese Communist rule” and compromising on Tibetan democracy and defense, they should read more carefully the Note on the Memorandum on Genuine Autonomy for the Tibetan People presented by the Tibetan delegation during the 9th round of talks with representatives of the Chinese government in 2010. The Note clearly describes how a genuine autonomy for the Tibetan people would operate within the framework of the People’s Republic of China and accepts the ‘three adherences’ as stipulated by the Chinese Central Government: the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party; socialism with Chinese characteristics; and the Regional National Autonomy system. Therefore, statements made by the current Tibetan leadership are consistent with the MWA policy.
Dr. Lobsang Sangay as an academic at Harvard visited China in 2005 and this was addressed and clarified by none other than the Kalon Tripa Samdhong Rinpoche during the last election in 2011. The Sikyong has already addressed at the sessions of the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile the issue of his mortgage payment. The Sikyong and his wife after living and working in the United States for sixteen years finally purchased a modest home for $365,000 in a working class neighborhood on the outskirts of Boston. There are many other Tibetan families in the United States who have purchased and paid off their mortgage on even more expensive homes within that same time period or shorter. It is perplexing why Maura Moynihan continues to dredge up these old non-issues.
Kaydor Aukatsang
Representative
Office of Tibet
1228 17th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036. USA
Articles >
Moynihan reply to Office of Tibet on “Tibet & China at the Same Washington Lobbyist”
To: The Editors of the Washington Times
August 5, 2015
In response to my op-ed “Tibet and China at the same Washington Lobbyist” published July 10, 2015, Mr. Kaydor Aukatsang, Office of Tibet representative, has written to The Washington Times on August 3, 2015, claiming that I made “false allegations.” Mr. Aukatsang has not shown any facts in my op-ed to be false; he merely offers differing opinions or attempted explanations. As my father Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said, everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts.
Mr. Aukatsang writes that the lobbying firm Sconset Strategies’ scope of work for the Office of Tibet was “limited to facilitating a couple of meetings on Capitol Hill in July 2011 and this service was provided pro-bono.” Both of these claims are inaccurate, according to documents from the U.S. Senate and the Center for Responsive Politics. Far from being limited to “a couple of meetings”, Sconset’s work for the Office of Tibet spanned advocacy on “[f]oreign Aid, self immolations, immigration policy.” (See http://1.usa.gov/1gINZMu) And rather than being pro bono, the Office of Tibet appears to have paid Sconset at least $20,000. (See http://bit.ly/1hisT7w) Mr. Aukatsang’s easily disprovable statements on Sconset can only call into question his credibility on other matters as well.
The Office of Tibet’s decision to hire Sconset demonstrates questionable judgment: Washington is filled with lobbyists; why did the Office of Tibet choose a firm whose main client is an avowed Chinese nationalist investigated by the FBI? Allowing this conflict of interest indicates either incompetence or worse.
Regarding Lobsang Sangay’s 2005 trip to China, Mr. Aukatsang evades the point. It is not about the trip but rather Mr. Sangay’s attempt to hide the Chinese papers he used to go. After long denying that he had used Overseas Chinese National papers to go to China, Sangay finally admitted it in 2011. Here is the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGdUEgs3n6Y In a fractious discussion in the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile on March 22, 2014, Sangay admitted to going to China but again evaded the issue of signing Overseas Chinese National papers. Here is the video (at the one hour mark, in Tibetan): http://youtu.be/gT7TYMZcU8Q
Mr. Aukatsang is also dodging the mortgage issue, as Mr. Sangay did in the Tibetan parliament session in 2014. Both individuals misleadingly equate buying a house with paying off the loan, which takes most people 30 years to do in the US. For Sangay, just four years after buying a house near Boston, he managed to pay off a $227,000 mortgage on July 29, 2011; he became prime minister just one week later. He originally took out a normal 30-year mortgage well before he was a candidate, and suddenly he found the funds to pay it off on the eve of inauguration. Sangay still refuses to account for how his quarter-million-dollar debt disappeared overnight, and with such fortuitous timing. http://www.rangzen.net/2014/04/11/lobsang-sangay-the-facts/
Mr. Aukatsang also does not address Sangay’s disturbing use of Chinese Communist propaganda code-words in his published papers, wherein Sangay refers to pre-1959 Tibet as a “feudal realm” that was “shackled to feudalism,” with “monks and grandees” displaying “reactionary” anti-modern attitudes. This is language that originates from Chinese Communist propaganda tracts about Tibet. Sangay also – fifteen times – calls His Holiness the Dalai Lama simply “the lama,” a level of disrespect that only Chinese Communists employ. Here is the paper, “Tibet: Exiles’ Journey” (2003), in Journal of Democracy: thtp://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=509&t=1
As for Mr. Aukatsang’s attempt to portray Mr. Sangay’s embrace of Chinese Communist rule in Tibet as much ado about nothing, this is like the attempt to evade the Office of Tibet’s relationship with Sconset Strategies in the face of facts showing otherwise. The simple fact is, when the Memorandum and Note were issued under Sangay’s predecessor, the “Middle Way” position on autonomy did not mean embracing Chinese Communist rule of Tibet, rejecting democracy, and allowing unlimited Chinese militarization of the plateau. When Sangay talks about his new policies toward China, he is no longer describing what was once understood as the Middle Way. The question is why.
Sincerely,
Maura Moynihan
After reading the above, and from we the Tibetan people were told when the novice Aukatstang was appointed to head the Office of Tibet in New York (now moved to multi-million condo in Washington DC)that he would find his own source of salary and wouldn’t burden CTA (remember Lobsang Sangay said that!)
I hope Maura will ask him about in her next reply to Aukatsang’s second response which is early awaited. The End.
We Tibetans are now obsessed with China’s sensibilities and image than Tibetan independence.
First time poster, long time reader.
Although I can only offer an opinion, I have a feeling if and when the economy bursts, it is going to get ugly. Japan is changing it’s position on how we stand as an armed nation and I think it’s because many factors are pointing to a huge war. The Chinese government will probably start falling apart from within and let’s not forget all those nukes they are sitting on. I hope it doesn’t turn into a nuclear mess and if it does, it will be a nightmare for Tibetans and neighboring countries. If a war was to break out, India will probably get involved. But I also think for China to become a democratic nation, it has to be destroyed just like Japan in WW2.
Legal scholar Mr. Lobsang Sangay, tenure as Sikyong (Prime minster equivalent) will terminate in 2016, unfortunately, with red circles on report card both from CCP and Tibetan activitist alike. While, as the election wind has wrap again among Tibetan nietzen across the continents for change. There will be little or zero difference in official policy, if next year, Lobsang Sangay wins the mandate for second term. And for Tibetan, It means, another five year of same old strategies and lobbies to China and red circles.
In this article I’ll present my assement of Lobsang Sangay term as Sikyong. Where he failed and why “No Sangay” for second term even after lack of credible alternatives.
How Sangay become Sikyong.
Mr. Sangay came to power on wave of expectation after decade of Samdhong Rinpoche as Kalon Tripa. Support for him was so eminent, in fact, I was also one from many young supporter who supported him as Kalon Tripa. As expected on poll, he successfully swiped the election by 55 percent votes out of 49,189, defeating his nearest rival Tethong Tenzin Namgyal by 8,646 votes.
From very announcement of his candidate for Kalon Tripa post, enthusiasm for him was based on his PhD, University he was associated, perceived intelligence, good orator skills and so forth beginning of new era contrast with tradtional criteria. Here, at last we got highly educated man, who vomit entire Chinese constitution rather than uneducated old man who wants Rangzen because he simply believes Tibet is Tibet. No argument, no law, no legal knowledge, no histrography to support the claim.
Why “No Sangay” for second term.
Failed agenda.
Unity
Mr. Sangay first agenda on his election manifesto was Unity. There was great prospect to believe in his narrative, surrounding all the hype. After presuming Office, his first job was to delivere on election promise he made. But there was resounding problem after decades of Samdhong Rinpoche. Unity was fractured all along the years. Sangay first test was to plaster that fracture, stop it from breaking. But 10.03.2015 New York incident was clear evidence he failed his first agenda.
For Unity to realize, Shugden was another headache for Sangay. CTA begin representative body of Tibetan people, Shugden or Anti-shugden. CTA headed by Syikong, currently him had responsiblity being signed contract with Tibetan people while getting elected rather than moral contract. Dr. Sangay is legal scholar, who knows better than him. His job was to bring everyone on table, separate two equity- Church and State. Not to address, equality as monastery, RC and IC. They are basic right He and no one can overrule even wish to, if, CTA is Democratic institution founded on Democratic Principles. In India racism is not limited to Citizenship, almost every Indian Muslim are liable to get Citizenship. Racism and inequality are rather more rooted on cognitive development call supremacy. Therefore, while debating discrimination discuss should also focus on psychological aspect which is rare even in American world and very novel to Tibetan. Or Mr. Sangay and his comardes should articulate well molded proposition on Equality and discrimination.
Dialogue with China.
Day after his election victory on 28.04.2011, China dismissed the Kalon Tripa election, calling the Tibetan Government in Exile “illegal”. Hinted it had no intention of negotiations with Lobsang Sangay. Sangay probably misread China as thitrty five scholars with whom he arrange meeting with His Holiness at Harvard, while, he assured Tibetan of speedy dialogue with China and secondly in his tenure His Holiness at Potala.
Whereas, in Bejjing, Xi jiping came out tiger in power drama. It was obvious like many other, Sangay too hope he shares his father’s liberal ideas. He surprised every one with his radicalism, surpassed Mao, Deng Xiaoping. Win the tag of supreme leader a.k.a redder than red. Silence every opposition over next few years. On the other way he wing his nationalist part building artificial island in South China Sea. In between all of this choas, Tibet was never a part of his game plan. And after recent Chinese white paper on Tibet, it is more clear than ever. If, Sangay, still is confidence about his promises than he is great comedian Kapil Sharma of Tibetan politics.
Democracy gone.
Mr. Sangay is by large finest production of Tibetan dispoara, only presume intellect by few, his name is synonymous with “Khaypa” Tibetan term for intelletucal. He marketed himself on that advantages, very distinct to other candidates. Carefully, not posing anti-establishment but out from their leauge. He led clever campaign like Indian PM Modi in Indian General election. Like Modi chaiwala he potrayed selfmade, came out from humble background. Both of them call it beauty of democracy. Mr. Sangay wherever he visted on campaign trail he added on his speech Tibetan quote which roughly translate “If beggar son has knowledge, Gandhen Tripa seat has no owner.” But two years later, in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC on May 8, 2013, he made three surprising statements:
1) Democracy for Tibet was out and Communist Party rule is acceptable,
2) genuine autonomy for Tibet could be for a limited duration,
3) and China would have discretion over military deployment in Tibet.
Only Mr. Sangay knows suddenly what happen. And we as common man only hope Mr. Modi will not modify what he means by democracy.
Conclusion
Mr Sangay is patriot but he failed: toward himself all his agenda, to public expected expectation. If he runs for office second time with controversy around he’ll be Mahmohan Singh, whom he example to win first term at the end of his second tenure.
And for Tibetan, It means, another five year of same old strategies, scarficies, flexiblities and lobbies to China and zero development on ground.
Thanks Jamyang Norbu-la. A great in-depth analysis pointing towards a different dimension very relevant to our cause too. Still, I doubt whether even 1% fellow Tibetans-in-exile would read it, if so, how many will have understood your actual message. There are a number of reasons on the ground. Number one, in the eyes of majority of the Tibetan people-in-exile you are the Jamyang Norbu…. This is naively very unfortunate, right? Secondly, even though we believe and hear our teachers constantly say, “legs bsad byis pas kha las nyon (Take Wisdom from a Child)” truly speaking, a very little attention is being paid to great thoughts of fellow thinkers in diaspora like yourself. Third, unfortunately, our society is walking more and more towards the traditional mindset. I would think, this could be one of the legacies of the golden marriage between the Dharma and Politics in Tibet for centuries. It will take generations for us to even suggest/file a divorce deal between them. Be that as it may, so what? Education really matters. There is, however, we hear a great many fellow Tibetans inside Tibet who are seriously treasuring your thoughts and the readership population is growing at an alarming rate even among Chinese intellectuals and academia. So, keep it up. A single man can make a huge difference….. You are a bravo!
Anyway, Jamyang-la, I would expect in near future that you would also write on one significant classic Tibetan mentality we cannot afford to ignore – i.e. how our Ecclesiastical class never ever misses an opportunity to seize banking upon Tibet’s ‘spiritual materialism’ (Trungpa Rinpoche’s word) throughout the history of Tibet at the cost of our nation. Given any time frame of the Tibet’s history, whenever, our Chinese brothers and sisters grow materially fatter, officially or unofficially, our spiritual materialism pandits go on a spiritual business boom in public. Currently, in the face of an illusive economic upsurge and unstable emotional paradox of the Chinese people – the myth and mysteries, deity and devil business of Tibet is fetching a good market. This may not be all bad, but we also hear, the gear is shifting with so many fake Tertons and charlatans alongside the growing trend of Chinese people’s demand on divination, rituals, Tantric exorcism, investing, initially in the monasteries and gradually into rural Tibet. Even the so called “Tantric Consort Exchange Consortium” business has secretly become a fashion of the day for spiritual elite’s. May be, all this is signaling a modern day return to the Mongol-Tibet and Manchu-Tibet Choyon Jindag (Priest-Patron) era-like, but without a warfare, good enough to shield Tibet’s core struggle/issues almost unnoticed for future right? At the same time, the attention of common people is skillfully diverted to a different dimension with new games. We also see a small corporate minded potential Chinese buyers drumming their dream-good days in future Tibet. All these looks very precarious….. Time for serious thoughts in this dot.com world fellow Tibetans…….
Jamyang la,
I am disappointed you have not stood as a candidate for the 2016 Sikyong. Even if our society is still very much in favour of the green brain,I thought the sikyong campaign will give you a perfect platform to express your views on the future of our country and educate and awaken our people with the knowledge of the other side of the coin.
@ 8 Japanguy
Our Earth has been quietly suffering the brunt of the damage and detritus that humanity has accumulated on her surface. Over time we have come to view planet earth as an inanimate object which we may exploit and abuse at our pleasure. The many areas of interior blasting within her crust and increasing extraction of oil has caused much distress to the Earth. Oil is her life blood of her that helps to lubricate the tectonic plates and help keep them properly locked together. We are now approaching a time when Mother Earth will have to purge itself of all this negative energy and evolve to a new and of a higher vibrational Earth. Throughout the history parts of the planet have been purged every few thousand years. However we have free will to make this transition more smooth and gentle. The more light we human beings bring through us into the earth, the less purification will be needed. The more entrenched we become in our false beliefs, ignorance, greed, rooted in the material and physical world the more negative low vibration we produce on the earth resulting in much upheaval and destruction during the phase of transition to a higher vibration Earth.
China is contributing heavily to this cloud of black negativity around Earth’s Ether. There is still time to bring some resolution and cleanse itself of its past karma.
I read the first article about the China’s economy and read this one too. I liked the second one better because this explains better how it is going to affect us or Tibet. Especially I like the idea that a new party, a democratic party, after collapse of the current CCP, will come into power and China breaking into pieces. That is very much like former Soviet Union. People do get tired of communism, eh? I surely hope to see this come true.
In my earlier post, I did not support the idea China collapsing economically, as I am a big supporter of Middle Way. I was thinking that after China succeed economically, they would want world’s respect, and it cannot be earned without addressing the Tibet issue. And at the same time I don’t mind China becoming democratic. And if that requires China to collapse economically, then count me in. Either way, we need to get our shit together and bother the hell out of those Chinese. Lets go bother them…. they killed millions of us, now at least we can go bother them and rob their sleeps.
And I am reading through the responds, and I ran into this, @6 Maura Moynihan. Never heard of this person before. I googled and its an ugly lady. Her complain sounds like a stalker. She digs up all Sikyong’s personal life, and wants to retaliate on some personal beef. Leave us alone lady. We have to go rob sleeps out of these Chinese scumbags.
Bhod Gyalo
You know I agree with your sentiments, Earth is our only home, therefore, we should at least keep it clean.
While I applaud your quaint story for its life affirming sentiments, the idea of the world’s oil reserves lubricating the tectonic plates, or anthropomorphising the Earth as some sort of sentient organism, complete with its own karma and Chakra vibrations, I am sorry, this is just bad science – even more ridiculous than the much ridiculed Gaia hypothesis. And you mentioned the Ether. I think even Tibetans stopped believing in the Ether as a viable scientific theory at about the same time we stopped believing that the earth is flat. lol
And I disagree with the Japanguy’s last bit… We can’t go Shinsengumi, that would be suicidal. No one needs to destroy China, only the Party must fall.
If a happy scenario should manifest, if Tibet were to became free, we would need the goodwill of our neighbors like China, for our own sake. We would be poorer than Nepal. I suspect, we’ll need all the help we can get.
China and Tibet had good relations in the past, once Tibet is free, we could have a mutually beneficial relationship again. Least I hope so.
actually, I agree that China must be destroyed not only to become a democratic country, but to also to change the sick culture that currently rule it…expecting other thing other than that for china to change, is a day dream that many wish and hold in, which lead to the current situation we saw now.
Tibetan National Congress has officialy endorsed lukar Jam
http://www.tibetnc.org/2015/08/19/the-tibetan-national-congress-endorses-lukar-jam-atsock-for-sikyong-2016/
China Sucks, calling someone ugly, is that not getting personal? Don’t make it personal?? What is not personal about politics, or life in general?
At some level, the Sikyong has no personal life since he is an elected public figure in a democratic society. What do you think is happening to the Canadian Senator Mike Duffy right now? CBC is even sorting through his (and PMO’s) E-mails. This over a $30.000.
Every politician, in a democratic framework, in some measure, must have tacitly accepted the notion of public accountability when they ran for office, as they are there but by the grace of the people. If Dr. Sangay is how he projects himself to be, there should be no problems. But people are ever that simple.
Democracies are painfully aware of the dilemma posed by the human proclivity toward self serving agendas, especially, in the pursuit of worldly powers, of greed and status. It must be the duty of the citizenry to obligate politicians toward an ever greater transparency and accountability, for the betterment of our democratic society.
And, if politicians still won’t play by those simple rules, we the People, (by the power of democracy) will utterly ruin them to their everlasting regret. (Thats what i learned from the Duffy controversy)
China is too big to be shaken up by economic downturn. China has a weapon may be nobody else has it that is disregard of human freedom or human life. China can kill millions of Chinese or millions of Chinese could die from starvation because of economic downturn, countries like US will still trade with China. As long as China can keep its military strong nothing can deter China not even by its own people. The struggle in China is military vs civilian. Unless Chinese civilians win some sort of military back up civilian has no chance to win anything against their government.
The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 is a good example. Tibetan issue bothers China when China is in a goode shape, when China is pretending to be a good guy. If China is involed in some sort of civil war, Tibetan issue is nothing more than mosquito nuisance. Anyway that is my opinion.
# 9 tsepak rigzin
we must understand that vast mojority of Tibetans who are responsible for Tibetan policies are well educated. I don’t understand who you are really blaming. In the past monks and Kutaa are blamed for failure. Now its anybody’s game.
#17’s call for Dr. Sangay to come clean is clarion call for him to clean the apparent-foggy dealing with the Chinese Lobby firm in DC; the murky mortgage pay before leaving Boston for Dharamsala – al brought to light Maura (daughter the well known late US Senator Patrick Moynihan). Also, who is,if any, paying Kaydor’s salary in DC Office of Tibet? He must prove his accountablilty to the innocent Tibetan people in the dwindling Tibetan settlement in India. If he fails come cleanup and provide truthful explanation, and ask for forgiveness, he days in Dharamsala may be numnered.
I rather hear about Dr. Lobsang Sangye’s job as a head of CTA. Did he fail anything? Is there anything he could have done better or differently? I know we live in a democracy society but we are not same as other sovereign democratic nation. Well established trees can handle storms, rains and snows and what so ever but trees that is not yet deeply rooted can not tolerate too much shaking. It will die.
Lobsang Sangay is a Torjan horse,
The reins of horse – the Sangay, is the hands of several masters,
From whom, he richly benefitted,
And whose bidding he has do.
Lady in New York,
Wanted none less than Lodi Gyari deposed.
Yes darling, he said . So be done.
His China handler,
Scripted his Foreign Policy Speech,
Where he crowed,
Tibetans demand no democracy;
Will live as comrades under communist China.
Who paid his mortgage is still not clear?
But there are many eyes who are watching.
Better he come clean or,
On the eve of election,
Anti-China agents nib his re-election campaign,
By disclosing his many secrets.
He thrived in the name of Tibet,
But the soul of the people,
Who self-immolated meant him not even a dime.
His biggest achievement is,
….
Wonder why Unity is such a failure under Dr. Sangay’s administration?
Remember March 10th? Remember the lack of Unity? (to put it mildly) Seems that wasnt all, seems we are more fractured then we thought…..look at what some of our esteemed leaders insinuate on this issue.
(Umeylam) Tashi Topgyal makes it five in the race for Tibetan PM’s post. (Phayul News)
Taking a dig at Syikong on ‘unity’, one of his three proclaimed principles, Topgyal said, “I am bit confused over his (Lobsang Sangay) usage of the term unity. I don’t see any unity during the parliament sessions. There were disarray when the topic of whether to have representatives from Jhonang. On which Do-Mey agreed whereas Do-Toe disagreed. This clearly shows otherwise.”
Another Middleway Sikyong candidate, the Speaker, Penpa Tsering la said on record, he “will try to unify the three provinces of Tibet.”
Sikyong supporters touted,
He an ‘expert’ on International law,
Will sue China on International forum!
Four years hence,
He has running from pillar to post,
Fearing lawsuit from you all know,
Who.